Vettori Vs. Dolidze 2: What To Expect

We’re just over 24 hours away from the rematch between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze at the UFC Fight Night from the Apex in Las Vegas. Read below for a detailed breakdown and prediction for tomorrow night’s main event.

Fighter Profiles

Marvin Vettori (“The Italian Dream”)

• Record: 19-7-1 (9-5-1 UFC)
• Age: 31 (born September 20, 1993)
• Height: 6’0″
• Reach: 74″
• Stance: Southpaw
• Last Fight: June 17, 2023, a unanimous decision loss to Jared Cannonier
• Key Wins: Roman Dolidze, Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson
• Notable Losses: Israel Adesanya (x2), Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier

Vettori is a former middleweight title challenger who faced Israel Adesanya for the belt in June 2021, losing by unanimous decision. Known for his durability and relentless pressure, he’s alternated between wins and losses in his last six bouts, with his most recent outing being a brutal five-round beating from Jared Cannonier in June 2023. That fight saw him absorb over 200 significant strikes, raising questions about his chin and stamina after such a long layoff (21 months by fight night).

Since then, Vettori underwent major surgery and switched camps to American Top Team (ATT), a move he believes has revitalized his game. He’s headlined six UFC events, showing the promotion’s faith in him, but at 1-2 in his last three, this fight is critical to see whether he remains a top UFC middleweight.

Roman Dolidze (“The Caucasian”)

• Record: 14-3 (8-3 UFC)
• Age: 36 (born July 15, 1988)
• Height: 6’2″
• Reach: 76″
• Stance: Orthodox
• Last Fight: October 5, 2024, TKO win over Kevin Holland at UFC 307
• Key Wins: Kevin Holland, Anthony Smith, Jack Hermansson
• Notable Losses: Marvin Vettori, Nassourdine Imavov, Derek Brunson

Dolidze entered the UFC as a light heavyweight but found his stride at middleweight since 2020, going 7-3 in the division. He was on a four-fight win streak (with three bonuses) before losing to Vettori in 2023. Since that defeat, he’s gone 2-1, losing a close majority decision to Nassourdine Imavov in February 2024 before rebounding with wins over Anthony Smith (decision) and Kevin Holland (TKO via rib injury). At 36, Dolidze is the older fighter, but his recent activity (three fights in 2024) contrasts sharply with Vettori’s inactivity.

Dolidze is a powerful striker with a strong grappling background, boasting 11 stoppage wins in his 14 victories (six knockouts, five submissions). He’s expressed confidence in his power and ground game, aiming to become the first to finish Vettori in the UFC.

Their First Fight: UFC 286 Recap

• Date: March 18, 2023
• Result: Vettori def. Dolidze via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
• Key Stats: Vettori out-landed Dolidze 106-71 in significant strikes over 15 minutes, with a 3-0 edge in rounds won.
• Fight Breakdown: The bout was largely a striking affair, with Vettori using superior footwork, distance management, and counter-punching to neutralize Dolidze’s early aggression. Dolidze landed some heavy shots in Round 1 but faded as Vettori’s kicks and pace took over. Takedown attempts were minimal, with Vettori landing one and Dolidze failing on two.

Dolidze started strong but couldn’t maintain his output, while Vettori’s durability and cardio shone through. The decision was clear but not without some debate among fans over the scoring, particularly the 30-27 card.

Fighting Styles and Strengths

Marvin Vettori

• Style: Pressure fighter with a blend of striking and grappling.
• Strengths:
  • Durability: Never been knocked out in the UFC; has a granite chin.
  • Cardio: Proven ability to maintain a high pace over five rounds (e.g., vs. Cannonier, Costa).
  • Wrestling: Nine career submission wins (two in UFC) and a notable 11-takedown performance against Kevin Holland.
  • Striking: Southpaw jab and leg kicks are key weapons; excels at countering when opponents overcommit.
• Weaknesses:
  • Recent Damage: Took significant punishment from Cannonier, raising concerns about long-term effects.
  • Layoff: Nearly two years out could mean rust, despite his claims of improvement at ATT.
  • Finishing Ability: Only 2 finishes in 15 UFC fights (both submissions); relies heavily on decisions.

Roman Dolidze

• Style: Power puncher with a strong grappling foundation.
• Strengths:
  • Power: Known for heavy hands; 11 of 14 wins by stoppage.
  • Grappling: Five submission wins, including a heel hook over Jack Hermansson; dangerous on the mat.
  • Momentum: Two straight wins in 2024, showing he’s active and improving.
  • Reach: Two-inch advantage could help him keep Vettori at bay.
• Weaknesses:
  • Stamina: Tends to fade in later rounds if he can’t secure an early finish (evident in first Vettori fight).
  • Defense: Absorbs strikes when pressing forward; ate 106 significant strikes in their first meeting.
  • Consistency: 2-2 in his last four against top competition (Vettori, Imavov losses).

Keys to Victory

For Vettori

1. Pace and Pressure: Use his cardio to push a high tempo over five rounds, wearing Dolidze down as he did in their first fight.
2. Leg Kicks: Target Dolidze’s lead leg to limit his movement and power base, a tactic that worked in 2023.
3. Takedowns: Mix in wrestling to disrupt Dolidze’s rhythm and capitalize on his nine career submission wins if it goes to the mat.
4. Avoid the Early Storm: Weather Dolidze’s aggressive start without taking big damage, trusting his durability.

For Dolidze

1. Early Aggression: Come out swinging to test Vettori’s chin after the Cannonier fight and his long layoff, aiming for a knockout.
2. Composure: Stay calm and conserve energy, as he’s noted this as his “key” to victory, avoiding the fade from their first bout.
3. Ground Game: Drag Vettori to the mat, where his grappling could exploit any rust in Vettori’s defensive wrestling.
4. Distance Management: Use his reach to land power shots without getting caught in Vettori’s counter range.

What’s Changed Since Their First Fight?

• Vettori:
  • Long layoff due to surgery and a camp switch to ATT, which he claims has made him a “different fighter.”
  • Coming off a loss that exposed potential vulnerabilities in his durability and recovery.
• Dolidze:
  • Fought three times since their last meeting, gaining experience and confidence with wins over notable names (Holland, Smith).
  • Learned from the first loss, emphasizing composure and aiming to finish Vettori.

Prediction and Breakdown

This fight hinges on a few critical factors: Vettori’s ring rust versus Dolidze’s momentum, and whether Dolidze can solve the puzzle he couldn’t in 2023. Vettori’s durability and cardio are well-documented—he’s never been finished in the UFC and has gone five rounds multiple times. Dolidze, however, has the power to test that chin, especially early, and his recent activity suggests he’s sharper heading in.

Vettori’s path to victory is a decision, grinding Dolidze down with volume and cardio as he did before. Dolidze’s best shot is a finish—likely a knockout in the first two rounds—before Vettori settles in. Given Vettori’s track record of never losing back-to-back fights (he’s 5-0 after losses in the UFC) and his preparation at ATT, he’s the slight favorite.

MMAherd Prediction: Marvin Vettori wins via unanimous decision. However, if Dolidze lands clean early, don’t be too surprised if he gets the victory by way of TKO.

Betting Odds (as of March 14, 2025)

• Vettori: -140 (favorite)
• Dolidze: +120 (underdog)